I. Introduction

In recent weeks, attention has turned to an unlikely potential crisis: a shortage of toilet paper in the United States. While the pandemic once brought memories of empty store shelves and panic buying, a new threat looms on the horizon—one tied not to consumer behavior but to international trade policy. According to Bloomberg News, President Donald Trump’s plan to raise tariffs on Canadian softwood lumber may inadvertently disrupt the production of one of our most essential commodities: toilet paper.

This article provides a detailed exploration of how an increase in tariffs—from the current 14% to as high as 27% or even over 50%—on Canadian lumber could impact the supply of northern bleached softwood kraft pulp (NBSK), the key raw material used in the manufacture of toilet paper and paper towels. We examine the economic and industrial ramifications of higher import duties, discuss how a reduced supply of pulp might force paper mills to cut production, and analyze the broader implications for consumers and the economy.

Through a multifaceted analysis that includes the mechanics of pulp production, the sensitivity of the market, and the intricacies of U.S.-Canada trade relations, this article sheds light on an unexpected consequence of tariff policy—one that could lead to shortages reminiscent of those seen during the pandemic, and potentially drive prices higher.

II. The Policy Shift: Understanding the Tariff Increase on Canadian Lumber

A. The Rationale Behind Tariff Hikes

President Trump’s administration has signaled its intention to raise tariffs on Canadian softwood lumber as part of a broader strategy to protect American industries and negotiate what the administration calls “reciprocal” trade deals. The proposed tariff increase would raise duties on Canadian lumber to 27%, with potential for further increases—possibly exceeding 50% in the future.

III. The Connection Between Canadian Lumber, Pulp Production, and Toilet Paper

A. Northern Bleached Softwood Kraft Pulp (NBSK): The Backbone of Toilet Paper

NBSK is a high-quality pulp derived from softwood trees, notably produced in Canada. This type of pulp is prized for its strength and brightness, making it an essential raw material in the production of toilet paper, paper towels, and other paper products. Each year, the U.S. imports around 2 million tons of this pulp from Canada, making it a critical component of the domestic supply chain.

Key attributes of NBSK include:

Strength and Durability: It ensures that toilet paper is both soft and strong enough to perform its essential functions.

Consistency in Quality: Many American paper mills are specifically designed to process NBSK, meaning that switching to alternative sources is not straightforward.

Economic Efficiency: The large-scale, steady supply from Canada helps maintain production levels and keep prices stable.

B. How Tariffs Could Disrupt the Supply Chain

The proposed tariff hike on Canadian softwood lumber could have unintended consequences on the production of NBSK pulp. Here’s how:

Increased Production Costs: Higher tariffs on lumber will raise the overall cost of Canadian raw materials. Sawmills facing steep tariffs may see reduced profitability.

Sawmill Closures: As import taxes force some sawmills to close, the supply of wood chips—the primary raw material for making pulp—could diminish.

Reduced Pulp Supply: With fewer wood chips available, pulp manufacturers might be forced to cut production or shut down temporarily, reducing the availability of NBSK.

Tight Market Conditions: The market for NBSK is highly balanced. Even a slight reduction in supply could lead to shortages, similar to those experienced during the pandemic, and potentially drive prices higher.

C. The Ripple Effect on Toilet Paper Production

A reduction in the supply of NBSK could have a significant impact on the manufacturing of toilet paper and other paper products:

Production Delays: Paper mills that rely on Canadian pulp might face temporary shutdowns or slowdowns, leading to a shortage of toilet paper.

Increased Costs: With less pulp available, manufacturers may need to source alternative materials or pay higher prices, which would ultimately be passed on to consumers.

Consumer Impact: A shortage, combined with higher prices, could lead to widespread concerns reminiscent of the early pandemic days, where panic buying and scarcity drove up demand and costs.